Trademark Update November 30, 2025

End of November Market Update

1.       The top story in November was the surge in both gold and silver.  Gold is up 60.3% year-to-date and 9% so far this quarter, while silver’s gains are 94.6% and 22%.  There are many theories as to why precious metals have performed so well this year.  Dollar weakness might have explained the first half surge, but the dollar has been up since June.  Significant concerns about U.S. monetary policy once Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is gone is probably the biggest contributor to the precious metals surge this quarter.

2.        The S&P 500 recovered in the last week of the quarter to post a very modest 0.1% monthly gain.  This was its seventh consecutive monthly gain.  Almost certainly the streak would have ended without the thin trading conditions the day before and after Thanksgiving.  We will probably give that back on December 1^st (at least, that has been the pattern).  I bring this up because I feel that the U.S. stock market is tired.  Typically, there is a correction in September that provides the fuel for an end-of-year rally.  We didn’t get that this year.  The only catalyst the market seems to have right now is the growing prospect of a Fed easing on December 10^th.

3.       High yield bonds, which can be a canary in the coal mine in terms of giving advance warning of an economic downturn, have been underperforming so far this quarter.  I’m keeping an eye on this in the wake of the well-publicized collapse of two entities heavily funded by private credit.  I want to see if there are more “cockroaches” to be discovered.  The market has become cautious, but not fearful in this area.

4.       Healthcare was by far the biggest sector winner in November.  It is thought that investors are catching on to the myriad benefits of AI to the health care sector in terms of drug discovery and targeted treatment.  That said, technical indicators suggest it may be overbought in the short term (RS reached 76 on Tuesday).  By and large this is not an expensive sector (Eli Lilly notwithstanding), so I believe it can be an outperformer into 2026.

5.       Bitcoin has been struggling mightily this quarter.  Having topped $127,000 on October 6^th, it is below $90,000 today.  I look at bitcoin as a proxy on speculation/excess liquidity in the market, and clearly that kind of activity has been in sharp decline lately.  For this reason, I am not overly optimistic on the technology sector in the near terms – tech and bitcoin tend to have a high positive correlation.

6.       The Russell 2000 is up 2.6% this quarter.  That compares favorably to a 2.4% gain for the S&P 500.  It does not signal, however, a breakout in small cap stocks.  Small cap bulls can claim a 2% performance advantage since November 14, but expanding the chart out to look at a 12 or 24 month perspective does no favors for small caps – lower relative highs and lower lows.  I’d LOVE for this to change.  We would certainly benefit from diversification bearing more fruit, but the charts don’t show anything more than a periodic uptick so far.

7.       For the most part, foreign stocks have tracked the 2.5% gain in U.S. stocks quarter-to-date.  Latin America has been the best performing region.  Performance has generally favored large value-oriented funds overseas.  The Asia tech trade, which was strong all summer, was especially weak in November.

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