Insights

Summary U.S. stocks added another 2.6% last quarter, bringing its full year return to 17% [1] .  It was a rather subdued quarter compared to the previous three quarters, and once again international stocks performed substantially better.  Investors felt a little more cautious about technology stocks last quarter as concerns grew as to whether the hundreds of billions being spent on artificial intelligence (AI) would have the kind of payoff that big tech stock prices implied. 

End of November Market Update. The top story in November was the surge in both gold and silver. Gold is up 60.3% year-to-date and 9% so far this quarter, while silver’s gains are 94.6% and 22%.

End of October Market Update ·        This was a huge month for biotechnology.  Biotech is a very long duration asset (many companies are far from their first profits), so they benefit greatly from lower interest rates.   ·        This was also a very good month for solar/clean energy.  Strangely, this industry tends to move counter-intuitively (meaning not at all like political control would make you think).   ·        October was also a huge month for semi-conductors, as de

Historically, September is a difficult month for stocks.  Market started to anticipate this by flattening out in mid-August, but positive interest rate news sent the market soaring again after Labor Day.

Growth stocks seem a little tired.  Give them credit where it is due, they have sizzled over the last few months.  However, in the wake of Nvidia’s extremely-solid-but-not-quite-lights-out earnings report and strong-but-not-pound-the-table-strong forward guidance, investors have decided that the tech sector might need to rest for a little while.

This morning’s Unemployment Report was a shocker!  The 73,000 July figure was disappointing as 110,000 was expected, but it was hardly a market mover in and of itself.  The big negative market reaction was for the revisions to the previous two months.  May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June from 147,000 down to 14,000.  Those were MASSIVE revisions! 

The second quarter came in like a shark and went out like a kitten.  The first six trading days of the quarter were wracked with tariff fears and selling, then we got the policy reversal, and then investors increasingly traded stable assets for those that had more upside potential.

Of Pianos, Mattresses, and Light Switches - Why it is Especially Challenging to Manage Assets in this Environment

In negotiations, it can be valuable to create the impression that you are willing to take bigger risks than your adversary.  Oftentimes,...

Market thoughts March 4, 2025 by Mark Carlton, CFA®

Summary With dividends reinvested, the S&P 500 gained close to 25% in 2024, but only 2.4% [1]  of that came in the final three months. ...

Trademark Blog Post – December 11, 2024: The U.S. stock market surged after the November election.  Investors remembered that in the...

Summary The S&P 500 gained 4.3% last quarter, and 15.3% in the first half of the year[1].  That is the good news.  The bad news was that...

Follow-ups and New Thoughts: My first investment thought today is that TIPs just became more interesting. TIPs started to fade as...

Follow-ups and New Thoughts: Bill Hinch is a 35-year investment veteran who now runs the First Eagle Small Cap Opportunity Fund after a...

Follow-ups and New Thoughts: 1) November Employment Report The number of jobs created in November (210,000) may have been a...

Follow-ups and New Thoughts: So little happened this summer that every time I sat down to write about the concern of the moment, it...

Follow-ups and New Thoughts: 1) On July 7th the 10-year Treasury traded at less than 1.30% for a short time before closing near 1.32%....

Follow-ups and New Thoughts: 1) Everything revolves around interest rates. On June 1st the 10-year treasury rose from 1.58% to 1.61%, and...

Follow-ups and New Thoughts: 1) The decline in the 10-year bond yield from 1.74% on March 31st to as low as 1.53% on April 15th has done...