Insights

Investors are herd creatures.  We can’t help it; 100,000 years of programming is hard to unlearn.  That said, what enabled our ancestors...

Exactly one month ago (February 19, 2020), the S&P 500 made a high just above 3393 before closing at 3384.  We didn’t know it at the...

THE NEW GOLD RUSH Welcome to the new gold rush.  There is a feeling in the investment world that we are in an Age of Disruption that is...

Summary 2019 closed on a high note for stocks as interest rate cuts fueled a speculative boom which has continued into 2020.  Against a...

What a difference a year makes!   The year-over-year gain from Christmas Eve 2018 to the same day in 2019 was close to 40%!<1>  We went...

As the markets moved into September there was a lot of fear.  As measured by GDP, purchasing managers, and the Institute for Supply...

Thoughts ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting: Investors expect that the Federal Reserve will ease 25 basis points. This time...

The S&P 500 is up close to 4% since the last Update and about 6.5% since the June 3rd low.<1>  And yet, nothing really seems different in...

The Great Bull Market The bull market began on March 9th, 2009, so at this point the Great Recession is completely gone from 10-year...

It is eye-opening to read the Market Perspective I wrote exactly two months ago.  There was a real sense of dread back then as the global...

The U.S. stock market has rallied nicely off its Christmas Eve low, but it is running into some resistance at the 2600 mark on the S&P...

Stocks Economic growth appears to have peaked in early autumn.  Unemployment is now starting to rise, judging by weekly claims.  On the...

Summary The U.S. stock market posted another strong quarter, rising 7.20%.  Once again, however, U.S. stocks were pretty much the “only...

The Fed and Interest Rates Interest rates are probably going up by 25 basis points later today. The market and I believe it’s a done...

Economy Famous hedge fund investor Stanley Druckenmiller is known for his assertion that it is liquidity that moves markets, not...

Emerging Markets I am nervous about emerging markets.  EM can handle a gradual strengthening of the US dollar to a point, but not the...

A Correction? The longer we remain below the January 26th high in the S&P 500, the more significant those highs become.<1> The term...

The stock market recovered most of its losses from the sharp, interest-rate related sell-off in early February.  That said, the bounce...

The continuation of the negative response of bonds to the strengthening economy and more importantly, to the normalization of interest...

Bonds made a move lower over the last couple of weeks most likely in response to the apparent inevitability of the new tax law lowering...