Insights

SUMMARY It probably comes as a surprise to no one, but the first quarter of 2020 was the worst first quarter in modern market history. ...

Exactly one month ago (February 19, 2020), the S&P 500 made a high just above 3393 before closing at 3384.  We didn’t know it at the...

THE NEW GOLD RUSH Welcome to the new gold rush.  There is a feeling in the investment world that we are in an Age of Disruption that is...

Summary 2019 closed on a high note for stocks as interest rate cuts fueled a speculative boom which has continued into 2020.  Against a...

What a difference a year makes!   The year-over-year gain from Christmas Eve 2018 to the same day in 2019 was close to 40%!<1>  We went...

As the markets moved into September there was a lot of fear.  As measured by GDP, purchasing managers, and the Institute for Supply...

SUMMARY The third quarter of 2019 paled in comparison to the previous two quarters as global weakness and trade fatigue combined to...

Thoughts ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting: Investors expect that the Federal Reserve will ease 25 basis points. This time...

Investors expect that the Federal Reserve will ease 25 basis points and that stocks will rally as a result. My feeling is that since this...

SUMMARY The second quarter of 2019 is in the books, as they say, and it was another good one for both stocks and bonds.  US equities...

The S&P 500 is up close to 4% since the last Update and about 6.5% since the June 3rd low.<1>  And yet, nothing really seems different in...

Summary Stocks rebounded sharply in the first quarter as investors reacted favorably to the Federal Reserve’s change of heart on...

The Great Bull Market The bull market began on March 9th, 2009, so at this point the Great Recession is completely gone from 10-year...

It is eye-opening to read the Market Perspective I wrote exactly two months ago.  There was a real sense of dread back then as the global...

Summary Stocks had a rough quarter worldwide.  In fact, 2018’s poor performance has raised the question as to whether or not the...

The U.S. stock market has rallied nicely off its Christmas Eve low, but it is running into some resistance at the 2600 mark on the S&P...

Stocks Economic growth appears to have peaked in early autumn.  Unemployment is now starting to rise, judging by weekly claims.  On the...

I'm headed to New York for a CFA conference as well as a few manager meetings. Before I go I wanted to share a few observations: A stock...

Summary The U.S. stock market posted another strong quarter, rising 7.20%.  Once again, however, U.S. stocks were pretty much the “only...

The Fed and Interest Rates Interest rates are probably going up by 25 basis points later today. The market and I believe it’s a done...