Emerging Markets I am nervous about emerging markets.  EM can handle a gradual strengthening of the US dollar to a point, but not the sudden surge that we have seen lately.  For an EM issuer, owning debt in dollar terms…

A Correction? The longer we remain below the January 26th high in the S&P 500, the more significant those highs become.[1] The term “correction” applies to a market decline that follows a market high.  The implication is that the market’s…

The stock market recovered most of its losses from the sharp, interest-rate related sell-off in early February.  That said, the bounce appears to have stalled without having made new highs on a broad market basis (the NASDAQ did make an…

The continuation of the negative response of bonds to the strengthening economy and more importantly, to the normalization of interest rates, began to spill over into the stock market on January 29th.   Over the next two weeks, a historically normal…

Bonds made a move lower over the last couple of weeks most likely in response to the apparent inevitability of the new tax law lowering corporate tax rates. This development encouraged investors to believe that economic activity would be stronger in…