Trademark Blog Post – December 11, 2024:
The U.S. stock market surged after the November election. Investors remembered that in the first year of Donald Trump’s first term (2017), in which taxes were cut, regulations were curtailed, and government spending took off. This combination made for a very good year for stocks, so the market is betting on the same combination in 2025. It may happen, but it’s important to note that the economy was growing at a much slower rate in late 2016 and inflation wasn’t on anybody’s mind back then. A tax cut not offset by fiscal restraint (spending cuts) would probably unnerve the bond market, leading to higher interest rates. The selection of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary initially helped calm the bond market due to his long career on Wall Street.
Much of the fuel for the gain in the U.S. stock market has come from investors shifting out of foreign stocks and currencies. It appears investors (both here and abroad) feel that at least initially the proposed tariffs will take a larger bite out of foreign stocks and currencies. The big question for 2025 and beyond is – how big will the response be?
Another thing that seems to be driving markets recently is the explosion in digital assets. While the U.S. stock market is 6.6% ahead of its close the day before election, bitcoin is 50% higher. Some tokens have done even better. The proximate cause for this is that the incoming Trump Administration promises to be much more friendly to “cryptos” than the Biden Administration’s regulators were. Gains of 50% or more in a very short time period in several of the digital tokens drove investors into a bit of a speculative frenzy, because they believe they can really get rich quick. This bled over into stocks; the artificial intelligence and quantum computing sub-sectors have soared almost as much as digital assets. Markets that trade on hope and greed are exciting, but they tend not to end well. If money management were nothing more than performance chasing, we would know where to invest, but we could not guarantee we’d have a chair, so to speak, when the “music” stopped playing. This is an exciting but dangerous time to be an investor.
Fraudsters don't take holidays:
With the holiday season upon us fraudsters are ready to take full advantage of any opportunity to gain access to personal information. Both Trademark Financial Management and Charles Schwab are committed to protecting your private information. Schwab released a list of common fraud methods to help you, and your friends, family, and colleagues shop safely this holiday season[1].
First, be sure you're familiar with the most common fraud methods:
Phishing /Email Account Compromise: Scammers send deceptive emails, texts, or messages designed to trick recipients into clicking malicious links or revealing sensitive information, often by impersonating reputable organizations. Additionally, thieves may attempt to gain access to e-mail accounts and use them to intercept financial communications or initiate fraudulent requests. Remember to always verbally verify all money movement instructions received via e-mail--including 1st party money movement requests.
Social engineering: fraudsters may pose as trusted retailers, charities, or even friends, pressuring victims into providing sensitive information or making payments. Stay skeptical of unsolicited requests and verify independently before acting.
Financial account takeover: Fraudsters use stolen credentials, malware, or breached information, to gain unauthorized access to accounts, often using the holiday season's surge in online shopping to make unauthorized credit card purchases or transfers. Monitor accounts closely and report suspicious activity immediately.
Questions to ask when shopping online:
Are you on a secure network? It's easy to hit the "Buy" button from anywhere when you are on your phone or laptop. But if you're shopping on a public network, your personal information—and your credit card number—might be intercepted by scammers. Wait to purchase until you're on a secure network.
Is this retailer or website genuine? Fraudsters set up convincing fake online stores offering discounts that are too good to be true. Always verify the legitimacy of websites before entering personal or payment information.
Is this shipping update legit? Be wary of unexpected emails or texts claiming to be from shipping companies asking you to click on links to confirm delivery details. These links often lead to malware or phishing attempts.
How do I know this gift card is valid? Gift cards are convenient, but they can open the door to scams. To ensure your gift card is protected, avoid the rack, and ask for one directly from the person behind the counter. And remember—no legitimate retailer or charity will demand gift cards for payment.
Can I trust this deal I saw on social media? Too-good-to-be-true deals on social media sites are often illegitimate. Carefully read reviews, look for security credentials on websites, and research unfamiliar retailers before you take advantage of a discount. A secure site will display https:// in the URL and a padlock icon in the address bar.
Can I pay by credit card? These cards offer the best protection against fraudulent transactions.
What does the Better Business Bureau have to say? Their scam BBB Scam Tracker can help you identify crimes and issues that are occurring in your area.
Both successful and prevented fraud attempts should be reported immediately.
On a personal note:
On Wednesday morning my mother, Donna Carlton, died at the age of 83. She had a 33-year career in financial services, starting out in 1977 when there were very few women in the industry and almost none in any kind of leadership role. She was successful because she worked very hard and she really cared about her clients. She gave me my start in the industry as an office assistant and early computer software user, and in doing so I found an aptitude for the analytical side of the business. Her father, my grandfather, had owned a dry goods store on the Iron Range in its heyday. He always told her that if you took care of your customers, they would take care of you. That is how she ran her business until she retired in 2010, and what I learned from her. I will always be in her debt.
_________________________________
DISCLOSURE
Past performance is no assurance of future results. Trademark Financial Management, LLC (“Trademark”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Minnesota. Trademark and its representatives are in compliance with registration requirements imposed upon investment advisers by those states in which Trademark operates. Trademark may only transact business in those states in which it is registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration. This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its investment advisory/management services. Any subsequent, direct communication by Trademark with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Trademark Financial Management and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security. For information pertaining to the registration status of Trademark please contact Trademark at (952) 358-3395 or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov). For additional information about Trademark, including fees and services, send for our disclosure statement as set forth on Form ADV from us using the contact information herein or by calling 952-358-3395. Please read the disclosure statement carefully before you invest or send money. Any reference to a chart, graph, formula, or software as a source of analysis used by Trademark Financial Management staff is one of many factors used to make investment decisions for your portfolio. No one graph, chart, formula, or software can in and of itself be used to determine which securities to buy or sell, when to buy or sell them, or assist any person in making decisions as to which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Any chart, graph, formula, or software used is limited by the data entered and the created parameters. The data was obtained from third parties deemed by the adviser to be reliable. Nonetheless, the adviser has not verified the results and cannot be assured of their accuracy.
[1] Charles Schwab Fraud Prevention
Comments