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Trademark Market Perspective for 2/24/2022

Follow-ups and New Thoughts:

  1. My first investment thought today is that TIPs just became more interesting. TIPs started to fade as investors contemplated 5-7 rate hikes, because coupon bonds would then provide more inflation protection.  If we assume that the Russian invasion means high prices on raw materials and fewer rate hike as the global economy slows, the inflation protection TIPs provide is more valuable.

  2. The dollar, at least in the short run, is going to be strong.  Unhedged foreign bonds are just not going to do well right now.  There is still going to be a great opportunity to play the falling dollar, but that time is not now.

  3. I’m not sure that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is positive for the energy sector in the intermediate to long term. The premise of the recent rally was underproduction and excess demand as the global economy recovers from Covid.  Instead we will get a LOT of production as soon as it can be brought online, and perhaps somewhat less of a recovery due to higher global inflation.

  4. One of the first reaction to a chaotic global situation is often to buy gold. I think this would make a lot of sense if I were a euro or yen or EM currency investor, but as a dollar-based investor I am only mildly enthused.  A currency flight-to-quality generally doesn’t do much for gold in the country with the highest quality currency.  Given Ukraine’s status as a potash producer, I would rather speculate on the agricultural implications of the invasion.  Consider buying fertilizer companies Today’s market action has been buy growth and sell value in the U.S., because long term rates declined sharply overnight and the yield curve flattened.  I am very skeptical that this is a good trade for all but the shortest-term investors.  In fact, I believe today is a bad day to trade overall.  There is a lot of knee jerk activity, and the price of anything you think you might want to buy or sell has probably already moved quite a bit.  We came into today with stocks already well off their most recent highs, so there isn’t a lot of “air” underneath prices.   Much of the speculative premium has been beaten out of the market (just ask Cathie Wood).  Also, the nature of events like invasions where power is asymmetric is that the market impact doesn’t last long. Disclosure Past performance is no assurance of future results. Trademark Financial Management, LLC (“Trademark”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Minnesota. Trademark and its representatives are in compliance with registration requirements imposed upon investment advisers by those states in which Trademark operates. Trademark may only transact business in those states in which it is registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration. This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its investment advisory/management services. Any subsequent, direct communication by Trademark with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year.   It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list.  Opinions expressed are those of Trademark Financial Management and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security. For information pertaining to the registration status of Trademark please contact Trademark at (952) 358-3395 or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site ( For additional information about Trademark, including fees and services, send for our disclosure statement as set forth on Form ADV from us using the contact information herein or by calling 952-358-3395. Please read the disclosure statement carefully before you invest or send money. Any reference to a chart, graph, formula, or software as a source of analysis used by Trademark Financial Management staff is one of many factors used to make investment decisions for your portfolio.  No one graph, chart, formula, or software can in and of itself be used to determine which securities to buy or sell, when to buy or sell them, or assist any person in making decisions as to which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them.  Any chart, graph, formula, or software used is limited by the data entered and the created parameters. The data was obtained from third parties deemed by the adviser to be reliable. Nonetheless, the adviser has not verified the results and cannot be assured of their accuracy.

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