Insights

The Great Bull Market The bull market began on March 9th, 2009, so at this point the Great Recession is completely gone from 10-year...

It is eye-opening to read the Market Perspective I wrote exactly two months ago.  There was a real sense of dread back then as the global...

Summary Stocks had a rough quarter worldwide.  In fact, 2018’s poor performance has raised the question as to whether or not the...

The U.S. stock market has rallied nicely off its Christmas Eve low, but it is running into some resistance at the 2600 mark on the S&P...

Stocks Economic growth appears to have peaked in early autumn.  Unemployment is now starting to rise, judging by weekly claims.  On the...

I'm headed to New York for a CFA conference as well as a few manager meetings. Before I go I wanted to share a few observations: A stock...

Summary The U.S. stock market posted another strong quarter, rising 7.20%.  Once again, however, U.S. stocks were pretty much the “only...

The Fed and Interest Rates Interest rates are probably going up by 25 basis points later today. The market and I believe it’s a done...

Economy Famous hedge fund investor Stanley Druckenmiller is known for his assertion that it is liquidity that moves markets, not...

Summary Stocks rebounded last quarter - at least here in the U.S.  Trade war fears drove up the value of the dollar on the idea that...

Emerging Markets I am nervous about emerging markets.  EM can handle a gradual strengthening of the US dollar to a point, but not the...

Summary The stock market’s long quarterly winning streak ended in the first quarter, but the loss was less than one percent.  Probably...

A Correction? The longer we remain below the January 26th high in the S&P 500, the more significant those highs become.<1> The term...

The stock market recovered most of its losses from the sharp, interest-rate related sell-off in early February.  That said, the bounce...

The continuation of the negative response of bonds to the strengthening economy and more importantly, to the normalization of interest...

Summary There is really nothing negative one can say about 2017 in terms of the stock market.  Returns were great almost anywhere one...

Bonds made a move lower over the last couple of weeks most likely in response to the apparent inevitability of the new tax law lowering...

The global stock markets seem “tired” right now.  It has been a very good year, with the S&P 500 up around 17% with dividends included...

Summary The stock rally continued into summer as the S&P 500 tacked on 4.48% in the third quarter.<1>  That brings the year-to-date gain...

Liquidity and the Fed Balance Sheet Over the last several years, advisers have been subjected to article after article saying the market...